World population to hit 7 billion in 2011

The world is on track to reach a global population of 7 billion in 2011, just 12 years after it hit the 6-billion mark, according to the newest data from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

Virtually all of the expected growth is in developing countries, with the poorest of those likely to see most of the world’s increased youth population (ages 15 to 24).

“Even with declining fertility rates in many countries, world population is still growing at a rapid rate,” said Bill Butz, PRB’s president. “The increase from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion to 6 billion. Both events are unprecedented in world history.”

The projection for population growth in developing countries assumes that fertility in those countries will fall to the same low levels as in today’s developed countries, around two children per woman. That is quite an assumption. Currently, the highest fertility rate is in Niger, 7.4 children per woman. The lowest rate is in Taiwan, 1.0 children per woman.

“The great bulk of today’s 1.2 billion youth — nearly 90 percent — are in developing countries,” said Carl Haub, PRB senior demographer and co-author of the data sheet.

Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia.

“During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care,” Haub said.

One of the major social questions of the next few decades is whether their expectations will be met.

The 2009 World Population Data Sheet shows just how stark the contrasts are between rich and poor countries. For example, even though Canada and Uganda have close to the same population today, Uganda is projected to have more than double Canada’s population by 2050. The cause of these enormous differences is the difference in lifetime births per woman. Ugandan women have 6.7 children on average, five more than the average for Canadian women.

Among the other numbers included in the data sheet:

• The UK is the eighth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, producing 536 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide;
• With an estimated population of 61.8 million as of mid-2009, the UK is projected to have 68.8 million people by 2025 and 76.9 million people by 2050; and
• The UK population is 80 per cent urban, with a population density of 255 people per square kilometre.