With 2020 fast approaching, carbon goals go longer term

With the UK having just set a carbon reduction goal that goes beyond the standard deadline of 2020, the question now is, will other countries follow its lead?

The UK recently announced that it aims to cut carbon emissions by 50 per cent by 2025.

The original 20-20-20 targets set out by the European Union included a 20-per cent reduction in carbon emissions compared to 1990 levels, with 20 per cent of energy to come from renewable sources and a 20-per cent improvement in efficiency of energy production … all by 2020. However, there is now a general consensus that the 20-per cent reduction for carbon emissions is not ambitious enough and that many countries will easily surpass this target.

Under its 2009 Low Carbon Transition Plan, for example, the UK is currently aiming for a 34-per cent reduction in emissions by 2020. The overall aim, according to the 2008 Climate Change Act, is a reduction of 80 per cent of carbon emissions by 2050, with intermediary targets between now and then set by a series of carbon budgets.

The UK’s fourth carbon budget, the most recent, calls for carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced by 50 per cent by 2025 compared to 1990 levels. This equates to a total limited output of 1,950 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is still a significant amount to be emitting.

For every country with low-carbon aspirations, early reductions tend to be easiest as there are always inefficiencies that can be reduced with minimal effort and knock-on effects. However, as carbon emission targets become tougher the closer we get to 2050, the more opposition is likely from high-emitting industries like the steel industry. This is already evident in the UK, with much lobbying to ensure there is a get-out clause in place.

The Treasury also typically opposes restrictions on carbon emissions because of the expected dent on economic competitiveness, particularly in a still-weak economy.

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne had an interesting comment on the subject, noting that Britain will “take steps to reduce the impact of government policy on the cost of electricity for these businesses, thereby allowing them to continue to play their part in delivering our green industrial transformation.” Whether this means the government will increase subsidies for businesses to reduce the impact from electricity bills is mere speculation at the moment.

Huhne also pointed out that the carbon emissions reduction target is “a framework not just for action on climate but for growth and prosperity.”

The economic benefit of implementing a low-carbon economy is now becoming better understood, with pioneering leaders such as Germany demonstrating the effectiveness of investment in low-carbon development. However, even über-green Germany currently has targets only to 2020.

Meanwhile, Japan, another a leader in low-carbon technologies, is now likely to be thinking longer-term in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed the recent earthquake and tsunami.

For now,  Europe leads the way in terms of legally binding targets for carbon emissions reductions. The US — long the world’s top emitter before being passed by China a few years ago — aims to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by 17 per cent by 2020 and by 83 per cent by 2050 from a 2005 baseline. However, the US plan is much less structured than the European model and is likely to change.

To develop low-carbon economies in the long run requires structured plans for getting there. While it’s fine to aim for reduced emissions, strategies also need to be both doable and economically feasible. With that in mind, expect to see European countries soon following the UK in setting longer-term targets. The best targets, after all, are those which are always just out of reach. From there, nations can continue raising the bar until emissions are negligible.

With developing nations focused more strongly on economic growth for now, developed economies will have to take the lead. It’s their responsibility to set the standards that can eventually drive more and more countries toward a low-carbon future.