Oil politics will keep growing uglier

So a leaked German report warns that peak oil has arrived and we’ll start seeing serious side-effects within 15 to 30 years? Hang on … we’re starting to see side-effects now.

Look no further than BP, undoubtedly 2010’s bête noire thanks to its record-breaking, months-long oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico. The company’s contrition over being responsible for the release of 4.9 million barrels of oil into a sensitive ecosystem didn’t last long. In fact, with the failed deepwater well on the verge of receiving a new, permanent (hopefully) cap, the oil giant is delivering a new message to any government officials who might still be bent on dealing out punishment: restrict new permits for offshore oil exploration and we might not — wink, wink, nudge, nudge — have enough future revenues to pay off all those dreadful damage claims.

The leaked Bundeswehr Transformation Centre report for the German military offered several key warnings, among them, as reported by Spiegel Online, “Oil will determine power,” and “Politics in place of the market.” While the think tank was referring to oil-producing nations when it made those forecasts, clearly the prediction applies to oil-producing companies as well, as BP is so eagerly demonstrating.

News flash: we don’t have a 15- to 30-year grace period … those in charge of the oil have us, excuse the expression, over the barrel now. And if you think BP’s latest hint that lawmakers make nice smacks of hubris, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Without some serious and accelerated efforts to reduce our petroleum consumption and “leave oil before it leaves us,” the world’s new energy order looks to be a bleak one for the proles.