New 'World Energy Outlook': Realistic or fudged?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) usually garners a lot of attention when it releases its annual “World Energy Outlook,” but today’s publication follows some much less-welcome attention: news that a whistleblower says the agency has regularly fudged figures to make global oil reserves look better … and fuel production declines look less alarming.

The insider’s comments, reported by The Guardian, suggest the IEA has spun its numbers to minimise fears that the globe has already passed peak oil. The official also claimed the US has encouraged the data manipulation.

The 2009 “World Energy Outlook” itself offers several reasons for raised eyebrows. For one, it sets an atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration goal of 450 parts per million as a target for preventing dangerous climate change; leading climate scientist James Hansen and others say the goal must be no more than 350 parts per million. (Levels currently stand at about 387 parts per million.)

Two, the IEA’s projected oil production outlook for 2030 shows roughly two-thirds of crude oil then coming from “fields yet to be developed or found.”

As one commenter on the peak oil website The Oil Drum noted, “That means about 5 – 6 new Saudi Arabias coming on stream … Those numbers seem highly optimistic to me, or more to the point, downright improbable.”

Upon releasing the new “World Energy Outlook,” the IEA noted, “The time has come to make the hard choices needed to combat climate change and enhance global energy security.”

“World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month for the UN Climate summit have a historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change,” said Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA’s executive director. “The World Energy Outlook 2009 seeks to add momentum to their negotiations at this crucial stage by detailing the practical steps needed for a sustainable energy future as part of a global climate deal.”

Tanaka added: “WEO-2009 provides both a caution and grounds for optimism. Caution, because a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6°C and poses serious threats to global energy security. Optimism, because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change while also enhancing energy security — and these are within reach as the new Outlook shows.”

Comforting words, if the IEA is in fact not being artificially over-optimistic. If it is … ? Tell us what you think the likely scenario might be in the comments section below.