Collapse or 'megaefficiency'? Five visions for 2050

If the image accompanying this article conjures up images of “Blade Runner,” you’ve gotten the right idea. An unsustainable, hyper-consuming global society is one of five futures that could await us, based on some of today’s trade and technology trends.

Deutsche Post DHL consulted experts in everything from energy and the economy to the environment and business to come up with five scenarios of what life in 2050 could look like. All five visions center on different developments in logistics: how goods are moved and managed between manufacturer and consumer.

If that’s not something we give much thought to on a daily basis, maybe it’s something that should get more of our attention. After all, many of the sustainability challenges, from rising carbon emissions to resource crunches, facing us today have accelerated with an increasingly globalized economy — ie, more and more stuff being shipped from one part of the world to another.

“In a world that is becoming harder and harder to predict, we have to expand our horizon and think about alternatives,” said Frank Appel, CEO of Deutsche Post DHL. “We can devise robust strategies and set the right course only if we have gained an understanding of different perspectives.”

The “Delivering Tomorrow: Logistics 2050” study doesn’t so much plot a course for a more sustainable future. Rather, it’s something of a thought experiment that brings together a variety of ideas and visions to help understand what the best routes might be. The scenarios, though, offer plenty of incentive to try and come to the right decisions … especially since one of the possible futures is described as “Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse.”

So what could these alternative five futures hold? Let’s take a look:

• Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse – Welcome to “unchecked materialism” enabled by a “global transportation supergrid.” Climate change is on the verge of “massive” impact and frequent natural disasters. Life’s tough in lots of ways, and logistics is a never-ending race to deal with supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, expensive raw materials and shrinking profit margins.
• Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities – In this alternative, life in 2050 has been shaped by a “paradigm shift towards green growth.” Robots are big in production and services, consumers rent more than buy, and space transporters and mega transporters join old-fashioned trucks, ships and planes to get things from place to place. Logistics are as much data-driven as goods-driven, with companies offering more renting and sharing services than ever before.
• Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles – Consumption is big, but shipping of finished goods? Not so much. That’s because of the rise of customization services and technologies (think 3D printers that can churn out a dinnerware set custom-designed for your son’s college graduation). The trend means lots more 3D printer cartridge shipping and recycling business for logistics companies. But that kind of unchecked personalization also means lots of demand for raw materials and energy, not good from a climate perspective. By 2050, the world is halfway along toward a 3.5 degree C rise in global temperatures.
• Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism – In this vision, globalization has run its course and markets … er, countries … have turned inward again through a range of nationalistic and protectionist policies. As a result, international trade is down while energy prices and conflict over dwindling resources are up. And forget about any global deal on climate change — no one’s cooperating with anyone anymore, and a 3.5-degree C rise is still in the cards for century’s end.
• Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation – Around the world, people continue to consume lots of stuff, thanks to cheap production enabled by automation. But “stuff” equals “energy” equals “carbon” — lots of it — and climate change disruptions are getting worse. Slowly, we’ve begun to realize that we need more than efficiency: we need systems that are robust and resilient too. Backup plans and backup infrastructure are built with the help of more regionalized supply chains and better security, and logistics have to become ever-smarter to manage it all. Just-in-time delivery of goods gives way to longer-lasting products, more warehousing for “just-in-case” needs and a focus on recycling. Deutsche Post DHL also calls this last scenario “the back-up economy.”

So which one will it be? It all depends, the experts say.

“In the end, scenarios are really about improving the quality of strategic thinking, conversation, and option generation, notes futurist and Global Business Network co-founder Peter Schwartz, who contributed to the study. “Good scenarios continually inform and enhance that conversation. They constructively challenge our thinking so we aren’t doomed to denial or blindsided by surprise … They allow new strategies to emerge and existing strategies to be tested.”

Schwartz concludes, “Ultimately, good scenarios enable leaders to make decisions with insight, clarity and confidence. These leaders – and their organizations – are more likely to win in an uncertain future.”