Climate change = Fewer clouds = More climate change

Climate change could bring with it fewer low-level clouds, which could then make global warming even worse, according to research from the Met Office.

A new study published in Science relied on the Met Office’s climate model as the only one which accurately reflects real-life observations. The findings support many years of Met Office research into how climate change may affect clouds and vice versa.

Low-level clouds, such as stratocumulus, play a vital role in keeping the Earth’s climate cool by reflecting sunlight. Because they are so important, climate researchers have been studying how they might react to a changing climate on a regional scale. However, this remains one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in understanding future climate change.

“There is still much work to be done before the uncertainty in this area of climate modelling can be fully eliminated,” said Mat Collins Senior climate scientist at the Met Office. “We’ve been researching the relation between clouds and climate change for more than a decade. It’s not surprising our model came out top because of the amount of effort we have put into developing the model, but there is still a long way to go. This research is only part of the jigsaw and one more test of the models. There are still a lot of questions to answer before we can be sure we’re getting this absolutely right.”

With fewer low-level clouds, more sunlight would get through and the planet would heat even more, further escalating the warming — an effect known as a “positive feedback.” The expected reduction in cloud cover is apparently due to an increase in sea-surface temperatures and weakening of the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

While the new research provides a significant step in understanding the link between low-level cloud and climate change, as well as proving the robustness of the Met Office model, there are still no conclusive answers, scientists say.