By 2035, world is on track to use 53 percent more energy

As usual, the annual energy forecast from the US government is a “good news, bad news” outlook. From a sustainability perspective, though, the bad news outweighs the good.

Global energy use, for example, is projected to increase by 53 percent between 2008 and 2035, with about half of that growth coming from China and India alone, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2011. By 2035, in fact, China is expected to be consuming 68 percent more energy than the US.

Also worth noting is the fact that the forecast banks on global production of petroleum and conventional liquids to rise to levels never achieved before. While — as The Oil Drum points out — world production of conventional liquids has essentially plateaued at 82 million barrels per day for the past seven years, the EIA sees global production hitting 99.1 million barrels a day. That prediction is based on a host of assumptions: that OPEC will do whatever it takes to maintain its current market share of global liquids supply, that both Mexico and Venezuela ease their restrictions on foreign ownership of hydrocarbon resources after around 2015, and that Iraq will more than double its production from 2.4 million barrels a day in 2008 to over 5 million barrels a day in 2035.

Among the outlook’s highlights:

• Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is projected to increase from 87.5 million barrels a day in 2008 to 112.2 million barrels a day in 2035. Production of unconventional liquids — fuels like biofuels, oil sands, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids — will rise from 3.9 million barrels a day in 2008 to 13.1 million barrels a day in 2035. However, that requires production of conventional liquids to increase from 81.7 million barrels a day in 2008 to 99.1 million barrels a day in 2035. That’s not only a level never seen before, but one we haven’t come anywhere close to reaching … even when oil prices peaked at $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.
• China and India’s demand for energy is on track to double by 2035, when the two countries will account for 31 percent of global energy use.
• A lot of that energy will be coming from coal, with China expected to account for 76 percent of the global increase in coal use between now and 2035. Worldwide, coal consumption is set to rise from 139 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 209 quadrillion Btu in 2035.
• Renewable energy use is growing fast — in fact, it’s likely to be the fastest-growing source of primary energy over the next 25 years — but fossil-fuel energy will continue to dominate the landscape. The share of renewables is projected to rise from 10 percent of world energy use in 2008 to 15 percent in 2035. Fossil fuels, however, will still account for 78 percent of consumption. (The EIA notes that those projections are based on policies now in place; if they change, those figures could also change considerably in one direction or the other.)
• Natural gas is the fossil fuel that will see consumption grow the most through 2035, with use increasing about 1.6 percent per year. By 2035, the world is expected to be using 169 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year, with an increasing amount of that coming from unconventional sources like shale gas and coalbed methane.
• World oil prices will remain high, while consumption of both conventional and unconventional liquids continues to grow. By 2035, the price of light sweet crude (in real 2009 dollars) is expected to be $125 per barrel.
• Depending on the scenario used — low oil price or high oil price — the EIA envisions the cost of oil in 2035 ranging from $50 per barrel to nearly $200 per barrel.
• Transportation-related energy consumption is projected to rise from 54 percent of total liquids in 2008 to 60 percent in 2035.
• Carbon dioxide emissions, too, are set to rise significantly: from 30.2 billion metric tons a year in 2008 to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035, an increase of 43 percent.