2008 meets 2009: A look back ... and forward

Too many Top-This-or-That-of-2008-type stories are published during the end-of-the-year holidays: who has time to read them all? That’s why, here at Greenbang, we’ve saved the wrapup (and look ahead) feature till now.

Anyway, doing our Top-Stories-of-2008 story now makes sense in another way as well, as many of the factors affecting last year’s big news events will certainly come into play in 2009 as well.

So what was — or will be — hot?

1. We will. While the World Meteorological Organization, NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies and the US National Climatic Data Center all agree 2008 was, on average, notably cooler than most recent years (due in part, possibly, to La Niña), last year was likely to be an aberration. The UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre is predicting this year will be one of the top five warmest on record.
2. Algae … maybe. The corn-based ethanol bubble burst dramatically in 2008, and the fallout is likely to continue into the new year. While many followers of corn are now turning their gaze toward switchgrass and other sources of cellulose, algae-based fuels could prove even more promising, considering the slimy green stuff can grow almost anywhere (no food vs. fuel debate here).
3. The Obama presidency … maybe. The rubber meets the road on Jan. 20, when the White House officially welcomes president-elect Barack Obama and his “green dream team” of people who actually understand things like science and climate change. Between the global financial crisis and numerous other crises du jour, Obama and his team face beyond-daunting challenges in the new year. The very fact that Obama was elected last year, though, merits Top 10 mention without a doubt. Plus, he’s named an actual Nobel Prize winner as Energy Secretary.
4. Oil. Is it peaking? Has it peaked? Will it stay at $50 (US)? Drop to $20? Rocket to $200? While light sweet crude peaked pricewise at $147.30 a barrel in July of last year, where prices will go in 2009 is anyone’s bet. However, this could be the year that marks the beginning of the first post-peak year of the rest of our lives. A growing Peak Oil chorus is chanting we’ve already hit peak and even the International Energy Agency has begun singing that tune.
5. “Clean coal.” What a year for watching it go from hot to not. While that turn of phrase tripped regularly over politicians’ lips throughout 2008, reality did not accompany. In fact, the early part of last year saw the death of what was to be the US’s premiere clean-coal development experiment: “FutureGen” to those involved, “NeverGen” to the rest. Oh, and by the way, there might be much less coal available to us in future than we thought.